Populist Parties Lead Polls in EU’s Biggest Economies

For the first time, populist parties are leading opinion polls in the U.K., France, and Germany—Europe’s three largest economies. The shift shows growing voter frustration after years of high immigration and rising living costs.

Populist and anti-immigration parties already hold power in countries like Italy, Finland, and the Netherlands. But never before have they been out in front in all of Europe’s biggest nations at the same time. Analysts say this could spark political instability, even though elections are still years away.

“It’s significant. Leaders in all three countries are facing a far right that could soon take power unless the root causes—immigration and cost of living—are addressed,” said Mujtaba Rahman of Eurasia Group.

France: National Rally in the Lead

Marine Le Pen’s party, National Rally, has consistently led the polls this year. A recent Elabe poll showed Jordan Bardella—Le Pen’s young protégé—with a 36% approval rating, making him France’s most popular politician. Polling also suggests that a National Rally candidate, whether Bardella or Le Pen, would win the first round of the next presidential election.

The party’s rise has shaken France’s politics. The current government is again near collapse, with Prime Minister François Bayrou facing a confidence vote on September 8. National Rally has vowed to oppose him, while Bardella has called on President Emmanuel Macron to resign or hold fresh elections.

United Kingdom: Reform UK Breaks the Duopoly

In Britain, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has surged over the past six months. The party now polls ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives, ending a century of dominance by the two traditional parties.

The rise comes amid record immigration. Between 2021 and 2024, around 4.5 million migrants entered the U.K. legally, while tens of thousands more crossed the English Channel illegally on small boats. So far this year, 29,000 people have made the crossing, putting heavy pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who came to power last year promising to crack down on smuggling gangs.

Germany: AfD Moves Ahead

Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been running neck-and-neck with the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) all year. In recent weeks, it has pulled slightly ahead for the first time since April, according to pollster Forsa.

The surge has come even as immigration numbers drop. Tougher border controls cut new asylum requests by one-third in the first half of this year. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has also scrapped several unpopular green policies. But the economy remains weak, shrinking 0.3% last quarter—its seventh contraction in two years.

AfD has built support by tapping into economic frustration. Its platform includes:

• Deporting illegal immigrants.

• Exiting the EU and euro.

• Limiting welfare for noncitizens.

• Raising pensions.

• Rejecting man-made climate change.

The party has also drawn controversy for ties to Russia and China, and for questioning Germany’s Holocaust remembrance culture. Still, it has won backing from high-profile figures, including U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk.

Why Voters Are Shifting

Across Europe, voters are frustrated by the combination of mass immigration and weak economies. Inflation has eased but prices remain high, and growth is almost flat. Many feel worse off and believe traditional political elites have ignored their concerns.

“From small towns in England to rural France and German industrial regions, people feel left behind and looked down upon,” said Jérémie Gallon, a former French diplomat.

That frustration has turned once-fringe populist movements into major forces—setting up years of political turbulence ahead for Europe’s biggest nations.