LIST: Trump Sends Tariff Letters to 14 Countries

US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose higher tariff rates of 25%-40% on key trading partners and signed an executive order holding off the new duties until Aug. 1.

Tariffs on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Tunisia, would be 25%, South Africa and Bosnia 30%, Indonesia 32%, Bangladesh and Serbia 35%, Thailand and Cambodia 36%, while Laos and Myanmar would face a 40% levy.

Meanwhile, Trump suggested the possibility of additional trade negotiations and delays at the White House shortly after he sent out the tariff letters, as he said the notifications were “not 100% firm”. He also said the US is close in making a deal with India.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said additional letters will arrive in the coming days.

Main takeaways:

• the deadline was pushed towards August 1st vs. July 9th;

• announced new tariff levels (effective on August 1st) for 14 countries

• Trump said that the tariffs on each country would be separate from any “sectoral” tariffs that he imposes;

• we should expect more deals/letters coming: Leavitt said Trump will send more letters

What is the worst scenario for Japan and SKorea if tariffs will sustain?

JPM strategist Rie Nishihara expects a reciprocal tariff of 24% will lead to 0.4%-0.9% drag in Japan GDP and 7% decline in TOPIX 2025 EPS. Note that these estimates are under the assumption that the additional tariffs will be applied to products other than those subject to product specific tariffs, which is different from the language used in Trump’s latest letters (Trump said the tariffs on each country would be separate from any “sectoral” tariffs that he imposes). The downside scenario estimated by Rie for NKY is 34,000.

On South Korea, its Tech and Discretionary sectors have 40% and 33% revenue exposure to the US, respectively. JPM Strategist Rajiv Batra sees 7% and 12% decline in EPS for its Tech and Discretionary sectors.

By late afternoon, the White House social media team had posted a total of seven trade warning letters, with the latest addressed to Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, Thailand, Serbia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Tunisia. Earlier in the day, letters to Japan and South Korea were also made public on Truth Social.

Here are the trade warning letters per country:

1. Malaysia

1. Kazakhstan

1. South Africa

1. Laos

1. Myanmar

1. South Korea

1. Japan

1. Tunisia

1. Thailand

1. Cambodia

1. Serbia

1. Bangladesh

1. Indonesia

1. Bosnia and Herzegovina

The remaining letters, as noted by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt earlier, will be released via Truth Social.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that, alongside Japan and South Korea, a dozen additional countries will soon receive similar trade warning letters, all of which will be publicly posted on President Trump's Truth Social account.

Leavitt also stated that the tariff implementation deadline has been moved from July 9 to August 1, giving the countries that receive letters a clear ultimatum: negotiate now.

Latest headlines:

• LEAVITT: THERE WILL BE 12 OTHER COUNTRIES GETTING NOTIFICATION

• LEAVITT: TRUMP TO SIGN ACTION TODAY DELAYING TARIFFS

• LEAVITT: LETTERS WILL BE POSTED TO TRUTH SOCIAL

• LEAVITT: TRUMP ALSO SIGNING ORDER DELAYING TARIFFS TO AUG 1

U.S. main equity indexes, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, fell to session lows after the Trump administration released tariff letters to a handful of countries, citing "persistent trade imbalances" and the failure to reach trade deals before the July 9 deadline. The tariffs are expected to take effect on August 1.

The first two trade letters were sent to South Korea and Japan, imposing a 25% tariff on all goods, effective August 1.

Here are the key points from the letter addressed to South Korea that was posted on President Trump's Truth Social page:

• The U.S. views the trade relationship as unbalanced and non-reciprocal.

• The 25% tariff applies to all Korean goods, unless they are produced within the U.S.

• The tariff is separate from sectoral tariffs and will be increased if Korea retaliates with its own tariff hikes.

• The U.S. encourages Korea to open its markets and remove trade barriers—offering a possible tariff reduction if this happens.

• The trade deficit is framed as a national security threat.

Here are the key points from the letter addressed to Japan that that was posted on Trump's Truth Social page:

• A 25% tariff will be imposed on all Japanese products entering the U.S. starting August 1, 2025.

• This tariff applies separately from all existing sectoral tariffs.

• The U.S. cites Japan’s tariffs, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers as causes of a persistent and unsustainable trade deficit; The U.S. claims the relationship has been non-reciprocal for too long.

• No tariffs will apply if Japanese companies manufacture products within the U.S.

• If Japan raises its tariffs, the U.S. will add that amount to the existing 25% tariff.

• The U.S. expresses willingness to reconsider or adjust tariffs if Japan opens its markets and removes trade barriers.

The instant reaction in U.S. markets was traders hitting the 'sell button,' with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sliding to session lows.

All in all, this is a trade ultimatum from the Trump administration to South Korea, Japan, and other countries, pressuring them to reduce trade barriers and tariffs and to reshore manufacturing in the U.S. The letter signals a broader 'America First' agenda and tariff diplomacy, aimed at reducing trade deficits by penalizing countries with perceived unfair trade practices. We suspect the other letters will be sent out shortly.

Vietnam has become the benchmark—both the ceiling for countries striking deals with the U.S. Trump is giving Japan and South Korea a final three-week deadline to reach a deal—failure to do so could mean severe consequences.

Trade tensions are back in view as the 90-day deadline to reciprocal tariffs (which sparked a painful but extremely short market correction) approaches on July 9, with Trump pledging to start issuing unilateral rates to dozens of countries in the coming days. Stocks retreated at the start of a potentially volatile week as US trading partners rushed to finalize trade deals with the Trump administration ahead of the Wednesday deadline. However, one potential offset is that there are increasingly suggestions that August 1st might be the new July 9th (more below).

As a benchmark, DB's economists believe the current effective tariff rate is around 15% (same as Morgan Stanley, see chart below), which is obviously a good deal below the implied rate from Liberation Day, but well above the low single figures before Trump returned to office. It is good news for markets that Section 899 (the revenge tax) has been consigned to the history books after not making it into the tax bill. It's also good news that Bessent has recently sounded more positive on the direction of travel in recent talks.

However, with financial conditions easy again and with the S&P 500 back at all-time highs, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Trump Administration take a tough stance with those who they don't think negotiations are going in the right direction.

President Trump said at the end of last week that by the July 9 deadline, tariffs would be "fully covered and they’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20%." Then over the weekend he said that he'd “signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday – probably 12”. Overnight this was firmed up to noon Washington time today, so expect a flurry of headlines at noon!

On Thursday Trump mentioned that the letters could go out on the Friday holiday and apply from August 1st if no deal can be made. This gave some comfort that there could be yet another extension and time to do deals. Bessent has also reiterated over the weekend that some countries would be able to negotiate a three-week extension to August 1st. So maybe we'll just be here again in three weeks when everyone is on the beach apart from the trade negotiators.

Bessent also said Trump will send letters to trading partners notifying them if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels while also adding that they are close to several deals and expect to see some big announcements in the next days. Furthermore, Bessent said 100 smaller countries will get set a tariff rate and many never even contacted the US.

For Europe, Bloomberg reported that the union is willing to accept a 10% universal tariff if exemptions for areas such as autos (25%) and steel and aluminum (50%) are provided. For Japan, the mood turned negative last week as President Trump said that they should "pay 30%, 35%, or whatever the number is that we determine, because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan." On the bright side, Treasury Secretary Bessent said they were "very close" to a deal with India, and on Thursday the US reached a trade deal with Vietnam.

Then overnight Trump posted on social media that "Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff”

This follows a BRICs summit in Rio over the weekend where the group leaders, including China and India, condemned and called for a "just and lasting" resolution to conflicts across the Middle East.