Gov Shutdown Looms: What You Need to Know

A government shutdown starting on Wednesday is looking probable as Democrats in Congress push Republicans on funding, health care, and President Trump’s reshaping of the federal government.

Unless Republicans and Democrats in Congress come to an agreement and pass a funding measure by 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday, October will kick off with the first government shutdown in nearly seven years.

It would affect every agency, but many “essential” government functions and payments would continue. The exact details of what will be open and closed can vary from previous shutdowns, however, and updated agency contingency plans have not been made public.

“The most important variable in assessing the potential economic impact and the impact felt by voters across the country is dependent on the length of a shutdown,” said Rachel Snyderman, managing director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “The risks and the impacts associated with shutdowns exponentially increase as their duration increases.”

“If the government does shut down next week, and Congress finds itself coming to the negotiating table very quickly, and we experience a lapse in appropriations in a few days, those impacts will be much less severe than if the negotiation takes two weeks,” Snyderman said.

Here is what we know and expect if the government shuts down on Oct. 1.

Which benefits still get paid?

Many direct payments like Social Security benefits and veterans disability and retirement benefits will still be paid as usual. Medicare and Medicaid benefits would also continue.

Those programs and benefits are funded through what is known as mandatory government spending, which does not rely on Congress acting to fund them every year.

However, there could be delays in customer service and administration, due to furloughs that could affect support staff.

Food assistance payments through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as “food stamps,” would continue initially, but they, as well as the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program, could be at risk in an extended shutdown.

“This is where the dependency on the duration of a shutdown has come into play,” Snyderman said. “These programs sometimes have balances that they are able to roll over every year, which can sustain some services for a matter of days, weeks or months. It is dependent on those balances.”

RealClearPolitics reported Friday that an unnamed senior Trump administration official said WIC could quickly run out of funding in October, putting the blame on Democrats: “Clearly Democrats are OK with women and children losing WIC benefits.”

What closes and stays open in a shutdown?

Closed: Smithsonian museums and the National Zoo would close to the public — though the zoo’s animals would continue to be fed and cared for.
Open: The United States Postal Service will be open and not interrupted, it said Thursday. The Postal Service is primarily funded by sale of its products and services and not tax dollars.
Open: Veterans Administration medical centers, outpatient clinics, and Vet Centers will be open during a shutdown.
Unclear: It is possible that national parks would close. They closed during a shutdown under former President Obama in 2013, but they remained open during the last 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019 despite bare-bones staff. A March 2024 National Park Service contingency plan said “most sites will be closed” in a shutdown. The National Park Service told The Hill that plans are being updated and “will be put online as they’re finalized.”

The New York Times reported former park superintendents are urging the Trump administration to close the parks during a shutdown to prevent the kind of damage to the treasured national sites that occurred in the 2018-2019 shutdown.
Closed: U.S. Capitol public tours will be suspended, Fox News reported. White House tours have already been suspended indefinitely due to President Trump’s construction of a new ballroom.
Open: The Supreme Court is expected to continue normal operations in the event of a shutdown, a spokesperson said, relying on funds not subject to annual approval to maintain operations through a short-term lapse.

Which government employees have to work?

Many essential employees and government workers would be required to work without immediate pay during a shutdown, but the impacts of a shutdown could still cause delay.

Air traffic controllers and most Transportation Security Administration employees would be required to work, for instance. Active-duty service members would be required to work.

Other federal workers will be furloughed and not allowed to work and not paid, and the exact breakdown of which employees is determined agency by agency.

Federal law passed in 2019 means that government workers who are furloughed or work without pay are guaranteed back pay when the government is funded again.

The Trump administration’s upending of the federal workforce is adding uncertainty to how the federal workforce will operate in a shutdown.

The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) told agencies in a memo on Wednesday to prepare for potential mass firings in the event of a shutdown, directing them to “use this opportunity to consider reduction in force (RIF) notices for all employees in programs, projects, or activities” that are subject to funding lapses, do not have another source of funding, and are “not consistent with the President’s priorities.”

It said that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which extended tax cuts and also provided funding boosts for the Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security, “provided ample resources to ensure that many core Trump Administration priorities will continue uninterrupted.”

That suggests those departments and agencies will be supported, but Snyderman said “we really need to look at the details included in agency contingency plans, because those contingency plans specify the staffing levels and the programs that would be able to continue.”

The OMB website previously hosted a collection of contingency plans from across the federal government ahead of the last government funding deadline in March. But a lot of firings and “fork in the road” buyouts have taken place since those plans were created. Updated agency plans were due on Aug. 1, the OMB memo noted, but OMB has not received all of them. OMB now says agency contingency plans will be hosted “solely on each agency’s website.”

Employees in the federal judiciary could also feel the impacts more in a shutdown this year than in the past.

The U.S. federal court system only has enough money in reserve to fund the judiciary through Friday, Oct. 3, but it may last through Oct. 17, according to a memo this week reported by Reuters from Judge Robert Conrad, the director of the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. That is a “sharp change” from when the judiciary was able to sustain operations through the entire 35-day lapse in 2018-2019.

A U.S. Courts Administrative Office spokesperson said in a statement: “Should fees and balances be exhausted before Congress enacts a continuing resolution or full-year funding, the Judiciary would then operate under the terms of the Anti-Deficiency Act. Federal courts would continue operating, but would be limited to activities needed to support the exercise of the Judiciary’s constitutional functions and to address emergency circumstances.”

How did we get here?

Congress has funded the federal government on time just three times since the current system was implemented in 1977, with funding fights often being leverage points that lawmakers use to extract concessions from their political opponents.

Even though Republicans hold majorities in both chambers and the White House, any regular government funding bill will have to be bipartisan because it takes 60 votes to overcome a filibuster in the Senate — requiring support from at least seven Senate Democrats, since Senate Republicans have just 53 seats.

The House earlier this month passed a Republican-crafted “clean” continuing resolution to fund the government until Nov. 21, which the Senate promptly rejected as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) have called on Republicans to address issues like Affordable Care Act subsidies that expire at the end of the calendar year, or to roll back Medicaid cuts signed into law in Republicans’ megabill earlier this year. Republicans argue those are unrelated issues that should be addressed separately, and they call some asks unreasonable.

President Trump scheduled, but then canceled, a meeting with the two Democratic leaders after Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) talked to him about the GOP’s continuing resolution and Democratic requests, according to one GOP leadership source.

Johnson canceled previously schedule voting days in the House on Sept. 29 and 30 as he aims to jam Senate Democrats into accepting the House-passed stopgap.

The Senate is expected to vote again on the House-passed, Republican-supported stopgap again before the shutdown deadline.