Bolivia Defeats Socialism for 1st Time in 20 Years

Bolivia’s socialist movement has been defeated for the first time in two decades, according to preliminary election results, as voters chose a centrist and a right-wing candidate to go head-to-head in a presidential runoff that could bring dramatic change for this South American nation.

Centrist Senator Rodrigo Paz and right-wing former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga won the most votes Sunday, according to an unofficial early count that showed the two held a likely unassailable lead in a crowded race for president in this country of 12 million people.

It marks the end of a socialist era for Bolivia, where the leftist movement of former president Evo Morales has dominated politics since his historic 2005 election as the country’s first Indigenous president. As the country faces its worst economic crisis in 40 years, voters here demanded a change.

Polls had predicted that two right-wing perennial candidates would head to a second round. But in a surprise twist, support surged for Paz, who appeared to win the most votes by offering an alternative path, aided by his running mate: Edman Lara, a young and TikTok-savvy former police captain who went viral for denouncing corruption inside the police forces.

Surrounded by supporters after results were announced, Paz called for “a frontal assault on corruption” and changes to the economy “so that it belongs to the people and not to the state.”

“Bolivia is not only calling for a change of government, it is also calling for a change to the political system,” Paz said. “This is the beginning of a great victory and a great transformation.”

The third-place winner, Samuel Doria Medina, conceded shortly after the results were announced and said he would support Paz in a second round. Two leftist candidates were coming in fourth and sixth place, according to the early results.

“This is a protest vote against the governments of the MAS,” said Bolivian political analyst Maria Teresa Zegada, referring to Morales’s party, the Movement Toward Socialism. Paz offered voters an antiestablishment option outside of the traditional parties — “a refreshing option,” she said.

Morales’s so-called “economic miracle” was once hailed as a socialist success story during his three terms as president. His government was credited with lifting millions out of poverty and into the middle class. Morales’s continued popularity, after three terms and a controversial attempt at a fourth, helped propel the 2020 election of the current president, Luis Arce, his former economy minister and chosen successor.

But much like his leftist Latin American contemporaries at the start of this century, government spending under Morales depended on an influx of cash from the global commodities boom. Everything changed after prices for Bolivia’s main export, natural gas, plummeted. Gas exports declined, imports rose and the central bank began running out of dollars. Bolivia, which once supplied half of its own diesel fuel, produced only 12 percent by 2023.

In recent months, Bolivians have been forced to sleep in their cars to wait to fill their tanks amid widespread fuel shortages. Inflation, which until 2023 was controlled at 2 percent, was more than 16 percent in July. Those who depend on government-subsidized food products have had to form long lines to buy bread.

“We’re bankrupt, there are no jobs here, everything is more expensive and the money is never enough,” said Julia Ayala Casa, as she voted for Paz in southern La Paz in a traditional pollera skirt worn by Indigenous Aymara and Quechua women here. “We have to get in line just to buy oil. There’s a line for everything.”

As Bolivians face a deepening crisis, Morales’s former party, the MAS, has splintered. Arce and Morales, former allies, became political enemies, blaming each other for the country’s struggles. Arce, his popularity declining in polls, chose not to run for reelection.

After a constitutional court blocked Morales from seeking a fourth term himself, the 65-year-old opted for a new strategy: urging voters to protest the elections altogether by annulling their votes with a big X on their ballots.

For months, Morales has been holed up in a tropical fortress in Bolivia’s remote coca-growing Chapare region, evading an arrest warrant while under the protection of a legion of his supporters, armed with sticks and shields. He told The Washington Post last week from his stronghold that he could mobilize his supporters within minutes. Arce, who told The Post he feared tensions in the area could rise, had directed law enforcement to prepare for possible violence.

The defeat of the left could bring a significant shift in Bolivia’s relationship with the U.S., after decades of antagonism from Morales and his party. Both contenders in the runoff vote studied at U.S. universities.

Paz is the son of a former president, Jaime Paz Zamora, who served between 1989 and 1993. The younger Paz was born in Santiago de Compostela, Spain, when his father was exiled during the country’s military dictatorship. The younger Paz was elected as a lawmaker in 2002 and later became mayor of the southern city of Tarija before becoming a senator.

Paz has proposed offering major tax incentives and has argued that fuel prices should be determined by the market. He is also suggesting presidents serve only a single term.

For many voters, Paz may represent “a new kind of politics, even though it’s just his father’s politics but from a younger generation,” said Santiago Anria, a political scientist at Cornell University who has written extensively about Bolivia. Paz, perhaps more than Quiroga and Medina, sought to connect with the working class and the informal sector, particularly with the campaign slogan, “capitalism for all.” He may have also received a boost from Evangelical communities, Anria said.

Quiroga briefly served as president between 2001 and 2002, taking the reigns from then-president Hugo Banzer, a former dictator who was later democratically elected and ultimately resigned to receive cancer treatment. Quiroga, a fierce rival of Morales and his party, says he would aim to negotiate $12 billion in financing from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. He has also vowed to privatize unprofitable state-owned companies.

Speaking after Sunday night’s election results, Quiroga congratulated Paz for his campaign and called for “national reconciliation” and “turning the page” after 20 years. He vowed to stabilize the economic crisis, squash inflation and recover Bolivians’ trust in the economy.

“We face the challenge of transitioning from a country with a centralized state to a country with freedom, with individual property rights for each person,” he said, “with investment, with free trade.”

Janeth Alvarez, a 45-year-old secretary, voted for Quiroga alongside her daughter in La Paz. She sees the former president as well prepared for the moment, and supports his proposals for reducing ministries and lowering subsidies for gas. “We have put up with these socialist politicians for so long,” she said. “With how expensive things are getting, we can’t save anymore. We’re living month to month.”

Paolo Monroy, a 30-year-old who works in administration, said he once believed Morales brought important change to the country, empowering the poor and those living in rural areas. But his support for Morales declined after seeing the allegations of corruption and electoral fraud against him, “and a lot of ignorance on the part of our leaders as well.”

“The left has already shown that it does not work for Bolivia,” Monroy said. “We need radical change.”