Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize Chances Surge

The chances of President Donald Trump winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize have surged after Israel and Hamas agreed to a U.S.-backed Gaza peace plan, with a leading bookmaker now showing him as the second favorite.

Star Sports is offering odds of 3/1 (25 percent) on Trump securing the award, up from 5/1 (16.7 percent) on October 3.

Winning the prize would be a major coup for Trump, who has made repeated references to the Nobel Peace Prize over the past few months, including telling senior generals and admirals at the end of September that it would be “a big insult to our country” if he did not win the award this year.

The U.S. president has received a number of nominations for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, including from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the governments of Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Rwanda and Cambodia.

Star Sports’ 3/1 odds on Trump winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize make him the second favorite with the bookmaker—behind only Sudan’s Emergency Response Room, which has odds of 2/1 (33.3 percent).

Doctors Without Borders and Yulia Navalnaya—the wife of deceased Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny—follow with 5/1 and 11/2 (15.4 percent), respectively.

By contrast, on October 3, when it was unclear whether Trump’s Gaza peace plan would be accepted, Star Sports offered 5/1 odds on him winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. This put the president behind not only Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms on 9/4 (30.8 percent) but also Navalnaya with 9/2 (18.2 percent).

The deadline for 2025 Nobel Peace Prize nominations was January 31, less than two weeks after Trump’s second presidential inauguration. While a number of foreign leaders and countries said they would nominate the U.S. president, their pledges came after the nomination deadline.

However, the Nobel Committee, which selects a short list of nominees and the winner, has the option of adding additional names during its first meeting, which took place on February 28.

According to its official website, the Nobel Committee, made up of five people appointed by the Norwegian parliament, “does not confirm the names of nominees, neither to the media nor to the candidates themselves.” The winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize is due to be announced on Friday.

The BBC reported that the final Nobel Committee meeting to discuss the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize took place on Monday. According to the committee’s website “the decision is final and without appeal.”

Late on Wednesday, Trump took to Truth Social to write: “I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan.” The plan should see Israeli troops in Gaza withdraw to certain agreed positions and the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner is set to be announced on Friday. Given the number of countries that pledged to nominate Trump after the January 31 deadline, it is highly likely that he will receive nominations for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize regardless of what happens.