Republicans Could Draw 19 More House Seats

Democratic voting rights groups are preparing for a nightmare scenario if the Supreme Court guts a key part of the landmark civil rights-era legislation, the Voting Rights Act — a very real possibility this term.

Ahead of the court’s Oct. 15 rehearing of Louisiana v. Callais — a case that has major implications for the VRA — two voting rights groups are sounding the alarm, warning that eliminating Section 2, a provision that prohibits racial gerrymandering when it dilutes minority voting power, would let Republicans redraw up to 19 House seats to favor the party and crush minority representation in Congress.

That calculation, made in a new report from Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter Fund shared exclusively with POLITICO, would all but guarantee Republican control of Congress.

While a ruling in time for next year’s midterms is unlikely, the organizations behind the report said that it’s not out of the question. Taken together, the groups identified 27 total seats that Republicans could redistrict in their favor ahead of the midterms — 19 of which stem from Section 2 being overturned.

Doing so would “clear the path for a one-party system where power serves the powerful and silences the people,” Black Voters Matter Fund co-founder LaTosha Brown said in a statement.

Without Section 2, up to 30 percent of the Congressional Black Caucus and 11 percent of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus could be drawn out of their seats, according to the report.

Republicans have long sought to dismantle this portion of the VRA, which generally prohibits race-based discrimination in voting laws and practices, arguing that it gives Democrats a partisan advantage. The Supreme Court has previously rebuffed these arguments, but voting rights advocates are worried the Louisiana case will change that.

Democrats could also find ways to use any changes to the VRA to their benefit. The party could redraw maps in heavily-blue areas with VRA protections to try and expand their margins, but there will be fewer opportunities.

In redistricting, the law is used to protect against racial gerrymandering that would dilute the voting power of racial and ethnic minority voters. States across the country routinely seek to comply with the law by drawing congressional districts where minority voters can elect their chosen candidates.

Many election lawyers expect a narrowing of the VRA, which could lead to sweeping changes to congressional delegations in the south. Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi could have all of their Democratic members ousted. Louisiana, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Florida would likely each retain at least one Democratic member, but their delegations would get smaller, according to the report.

The report comes as Republicans have embarked on a nationwide map shuffle ahead of the midterms, a move that’s being pushed aggressively by the White House and could help the GOP cling to its narrow majority. The mid-cycle redraws — which are unusual but not unprecedented — have already led to six more GOP-favored seats across two states.

Other Republican-controlled states are poised to jump into the redistricting race, a number that would surely swell if the VRA’s protections are eliminated.

That prospect has left the groups who put out the report calling for Democrats to have an “aggressive and immediate” response to Republican redistricting efforts that are already underway.

Fair Fight Action CEO Lauren Groh-Wargo said in a statement that further tattering the VRA will do “permanent” damage. “The only way to stop it is to play offense — aggressively redraw maps wherever possible, focus relentlessly on taking back Congress, and be ready to use that power to pass real pro-democracy legislation and hold this corrupted Court accountable,” she said.