Poll: Stefanik Closes Gap with Hochul in NY Governor Race

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) looks well-positioned for her expected challenge to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) to be New York‘s next governor after she came up just five points behind in a one-on-one, hypothetical poll commissioned by Stefanik’s PAC.

Stefanik has been eyeing a run for New York governor for several months. Outsider speculation about her possible bid escalated when President Donald Trump revoked her nomination to be ambassador to the U.N. due to concerns about Republicans’ razor-thin House majority.

Hochul leads Stefanik by just a 48% to 43% margin in the hypothetical blue-state matchup, according to the internal poll released on Wednesday by GrayHouse pollster Landon Wall, who said Hochul has “unprecedented vulnerability” for a New York Democrat.

The poll also showed 15% of New York voters would definitely reelect Hochul, while 19% displayed “incredibly soft support” for her.

The survey results specifically pointed to Hochul’s endorsement of New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani in mid-September as a tipping point toward Stefanik for on-the-fence voters.

“Kathy Hochul’s coalition is historically fragile: soft support from her own voters, significant growing appetite for change, and her endorsement of politically toxic Zohran Mamdani collapses support among Independents,” Wall said in the poll summary.

Stefanik’s E-PAC commissioned the poll, which surveyed 1,250 likely voters in the 2026 midterm elections. The poll results memo did not specify voters’ demographics or backgrounds.

“A win by Mamdani makes 47% of independent voters less willing to vote for a Democrat for governor, with only 9% saying it would make them more likely to vote Democrat. 59% of NY voters said it was time for anyone but Hochul,” Stefanik wrote on X.

Stefanik’s internal poll was starkly different from other recent polling on the hypothetical matchup. A Siena College poll from mid-September showed Hochul leading Stefanik by a 25-point margin.

Hochul, the first female governor of New York, was sworn in to office in 2021 when former Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned over sexual harassment allegations, as she was in line of succession as Cuomo’s lieutenant governor. She won her first gubernatorial election in 2022, besting Republican candidate Lee Zeldin by approximately seven points in the general election.

Stefanik has been serving as the representative for New York’s 21st Congressional District since 2015. Her district encompasses a large portion of upstate New York. The next election for her seat is also in 2026.