Poll: Spanberger leads Earle-Sears in Virginia

Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leads her Republican rival in the final days of the Virginia gubernatorial race, while the attorney general’s race is a toss-up, according to a new poll.

Spanberger leads Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) 55 percent support to 44 percent, according to an Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released on Sunday. The Democrat’s support has grown by 3 points since the previous survey, taken last month. Earle-Sears gained 2 points since that poll.

“Heading into Election Day, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has solidified her status as the frontrunner in the race for Governor,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement. “A sign of Spanberger’s growing strength is among male voters, a group that was split last month but now breaks for her by six points, 52% to 46%. These voters backed Governor Youngkin by about 12 points in 2021.”

The attorney general’s race, meanwhile, is much closer. Democrat Jay Jones holds a narrow lead over state Attorney General Jason Miyares (R), with 49 percent support to the incumbent’s 47 percent, according to the poll, with another 4 percent of respondents undecided. When including which candidate the undecided voters lean toward, Jones’s support grows to 51 percent to Miyares’s 49 percent.

“Unlike the governor’s race, early and likely voters split in opposite directions: those who have already voted favor Jones 56% to 44%, while those yet to vote back Miyares 50% to 43%,” Kimball said in his statement. “Men break for Miyares 50% to 46%, while women side with Jones 51% to 45%.”

A split-ticket result in Virginia elections is increasingly rare, but this year’s contest was roiled by an unexpected twist: unearthed text messages sent by Jones back in 2022 in which he suggested that the Republican state House Speaker at the time should be shot. Jones has since apologized for the text messages, and while Spanberger condemned them, she did not call for him to drop out of the race. Republicans have hammered the Democratic ticket over the scandal, and the race has remained much closer than the gubernatorial contest.

Jones could benefit from many Virginians having already cast their ballots before the scandal drew headlines. Early voting began in September, and as of this weekend, more than 1 million people in the state had already cast their ballots.

Another factor benefiting the Democratic candidates is President Trump’s low favorability in the state. Trump holds a 45 percent job approval rating among Virginians, according to the Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey, while 54 percent of survey respondents disapprove of his job performance. Gov. Glenn Youngkin, meanwhile, has a 49 percent job approval rating, with a 39 percent disapproval rating.

“Over 1 in 10 voters who approve of Youngkin (13%) plan to back Spanberger, while none who disapprove of the Governor plan to support Earle-Sears,” Kimball said.

The economy remains the top issue on voters’ minds at 39 percent, according to the poll, followed by threats to democracy at 16 percent, health care at 10 percent, immigration at 9 percent and education at 7 percent.

“Those who say the economy is the top issue facing the state break for Spanberger, 53% to 46%, typically a group that breaks for the Republican candidate, like in New Jersey, where voters who say the economy is the top issue break for the Republican Ciattarelli over Democrat Sherrill for governor, 59% to 39%,” said Kimball.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted from Oct. 30 to 31 with a sample of 880 likely voters or people who had already voted. The credibility interval, similar to a margin of error, is 3.2 percentage points.