Poll: Republican Takes Lead in California Governor Race

Republican candidate Steve Hilton is very narrowly ahead in the latest poll from Emerson College on California's gubernatorial race, pulling into the lead over former U.S. Representative Katie Porter, the Democratic front-runner.

“Katie is the experienced, battle-tested fighter that Californians want as their next Governor,” Peter Opitz, spokesperson for Porter’s campaign, said in a statement emailed to Newsweek on Friday.

Hilton, a former Fox News host and current contributor, said in a statement emailed to Newsweek that "everyone can see we need change, and some political balance in California.”

Porter earlier this month faced criticism after an interview clip went viral, showing her in a tense exchange with a journalist when facing follow-up questions. Another video circulated widely the same week capturing the California Democrat cursing when a staffer entered the background of her Zoom interview shot. The new polling shows Hilton making gains, while Porter has declined since a previous Emerson poll in August.

The latest Emerson poll, conducted on October 20 and October 21, shows Hilton with a slim lead in the crowded field to replace outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom in California next year. The Republican has the support of 16 percent of California's likely voters, whereas Porter is backed by 15 percent.

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, comes in third at 11 percent. Former Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, both tied for fourth at 5 percent. Several other contenders polled lower, in the single digits.

The poll included 900 likely California voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 points.

The movement for Porter and Hilton was notable compared with a similar poll conducted by Emerson in August. In that survey, Porter was the front-runner at 18 percent—3 points higher than October. Conversely, Hilton was at 12 percent, with the new polling showing him 4 points higher.

The previous survey was carried out on August 4 and August 5. It included 1,000 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

California has a jungle primary system, in which all candidates run against each other, regardless of party affiliation. The top two candidates in the primary advance to face off in the general election. Winning the first round, especially when there is a large field of candidates, is no guarantee of winning the general.

Additionally, the West Coast state is a strong Democratic stronghold, with its last Republican governor—iconic actor Arnold Schwarzenegger—having won reelection nearly two decades ago, in 2006. Most analysts believe it is likely that a Democrat will again win the seat in California next year.

A previous Zogby Strategies poll of 1,000 likely voters in early September found that when campaign messaging is taken into account, Hilton received 29 percent of the vote share while Porter garnered 23 percent. A further 23 percent said they were undecided. That survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Katie Porter's Recent Scandal

Earlier this month, a recent interview clip with CBS News California Investigates correspondent Julie Watts went viral online. In the video, Porter was asked, "What do you say to the 40 percent of California voters, who you'll need in order to win, who voted for [President Donald] Trump?"

"How would I need them in order to win, ma'am?" Porter responded, then laughed. She continued, saying that in a general election race against a Republican, she believes that she would receive all non-Trump votes. "I have stood on my own two feet and won Republican votes before."

Watts then responded, "But you just said you don't need those Trump voters." Porter, seemingly perturbed, put her hands up and said the interview was becoming "unnecessarily argumentative."

Watts said she asked every other candidate a similar line of questions or follow-ups about needing the 40 percent of voters who backed Trump.

"I don't want to keep doing this, I'm going to call it," Porter said, adding she won't do an interview with "seven follow-ups to every single question you ask." She also added that she has never had to "end an interview" before.

After that clip was shared widely online, sparking significant backlash, another old clip resurfaced of Porter cursing at a staffer.

The new video, which was first obtained by Politico, said it was dated July 2021 and showed Porter talking to then-Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm in a video call about electric vehicles when a member of her staff moves into the background.

“Get out of my f****** shot,” Porter told the unidentified woman employee.

The woman says she wanted to point out an error Porter had just given in her talk.

Porter responds: “You also were in my shot before that. Stay out of my shot.”

The California primary is on June 2 next year, and polling is expected to change significantly in the coming months. The general election for governor is set for November 3, 2026.