NYT Poll: Mamdani Holds Huge Lead in Mayor's Race

New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani holds a commanding lead in the race among the four-person field, though the lead narrows in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The New York Times/Siena University poll shows Mamdani leading with 46 percent, more than 20 points over his next closest competitor, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), with 24 percent. Republican Curtis Sliwa comes in third with 15 percent, while incumbent Mayor Eric Adams (D) follows with 9 percent.

Cuomo and Adams are both running independent bids. The former governor launched his after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani, a member of the New York State Assembly, in an upset; Adams chose to forgo the primary entirely.

The latest poll showed 5 percent said they were unsure or didn’t say who they’d support.

The survey was taken last week as speculation built that Adams, who is considered a long shot, would drop out and potentially take a role in the Trump administration. Multiple reports indicated those in President Trump’s orbit discussed giving both Adams and Sliwa roles in the administration to push them of the race and boost Cuomo’s chances by allowing him to face Mamdani head-to-head.

But despite the speculation, Sliwa ruled out accepting any role under Trump almost immediately, while Adams declared Friday that he would continue his campaign. The incumbent mayor also expressed optimism about outperforming expectations and noted most polling missed Mamdani’s defeat of Cuomo in the Democratic primary.

Amid some accusations from Mamdani that Cuomo is Trump’s preferred candidate, the former governor rejected the notion that he needs assistance and said the president actually wants Mamdani to win.

If the field were to narrow, the poll shows Mamdani still leading, but by a more modest margin. The closest match-up is between him and Cuomo, the latter of whom has consistently placed second in polling.

Mamdani leads Cuomo by 4 points in a head-to-head, 48 percent to 44 percent, with 3 percent saying they wouldn’t vote and 4 percent saying they were unsure, according to the survey results. In a matchup just with Adams, the Democratic nominee leads by almost the same margin as the four-person race. He’s ahead by 19 points, 55 percent to 36 percent.

Cuomo has argued he’s the most electable of Mamdani’s opponents, and the other candidates should consider yielding to him as the best chance to stop the democratic socialist. Sliwa and Adams have maintained they won’t drop out, raising concerns from Mamdani’s opponents that the vote could be split among them, thus leading the State Assembly member to victory.

The survey shows Mamdani has a significant advantage in likability. He was viewed very or somewhat favorably by 52 percent of respondents and very or somewhat unfavorably by 39 percent.

By contrast, Cuomo’s net favorability is underwater by more than 20 points, and Adams’s by almost 40 points. Sliwa is underwater by almost 20 points as well, the poll found.

The numbers do show a potential path forward for Mamdani critics if they can consolidate behind one candidate, likely Cuomo, but a significant obstacle if the race remains static with less than two months before Election Day.

The Times/Siena poll was conducted Sept. 2-6 among 1,284 likely New York City voters. The margin of error was 3.6 percentage points.