LIST: 13 Likely Candidates to Replace Pope Francis

An old saying about papal elections goes as follows: “He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.” In other words, any candidate seen as the frontrunner before the voting begins should be treated with caution, and no cardinal should go into the Sistine Chapel assuming they will get the votes.

At the 2013 conclave, one of the favorites was Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan. The Italian bishops were so confident that he would be chosen that after the white smoke emerged from the Vatican chimney, a senior Italian church official sent a message to reporters expressing joy over Scola’s election. The problem was that Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio had already been named pope.

This conclave is going to be crucial for deciding the future direction of the Roman Catholic Church, and the field of candidates is wide open thanks to Pope Francis’ reforms.

During his pontificate, Francis overhauled the composition of the body that will elect his successor, making it more representative of the worldwide church.

He threw out the old, unwritten rulebook that bishops of certain dioceses (several of them in Italy) would automatically be made cardinals and instead gave red hats to bishops in parts of the world that had never had them before, such as Tonga, Haiti and Papua New Guinea. Several of them are “outsiders” to the Roman system, so it makes it harder to predict how they will vote.

Nevertheless, only a few cardinals have the requisite skills, experience and personality suitable to taking on the role of leading the Roman Catholic Church.

Electors will need to consider the priorities of the church and the profile of the next candidate. They will also need to consider whether the next pope should continue the reforms started by Francis or take a different direction.

They will be looking for someone able to lead a global church and offer credible moral leadership on the world stage. Some see the church’s future as lying in Asia, which has led to speculation the next pope could be from Southeast Asia.

Age is also a factor, with the last two conclaves opting for older popes to ensure shorter pontificates.

Papal candidates are known as “papabile” or translated from the Italian, “pope-able.” The vast majority of the papabile were appointed by Pope Francis. Just two were chosen by his predecessors. Here are some of the contenders.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Holy See Secretary of State)

A skilled diplomat, the cardinal has held the number two position in the Vatican since 2013 and has a deep knowledge of the global church. Parolin, who hails from the north of Italy, has worked in Latin America as papal representative in Venezuela and he attended the signing of Colombia’s 2016 peace agreement. He has been the architect of the Vatican’s attempts to build relations with Vietnam and the move to re-establish diplomatic ties with China which saw the Holy See sign a deal with Beijing on bishop appointments. His election could lead to clashes with the Trump administration as he has rebuked the US president’s Gaza plan. While he was supportive of Francis' agenda, Parolin is a more cautious, conservative figure, although his skills at mediation and diplomacy may appeal to voters.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna)

Zuppi has strong diplomatic skills which were recognized by Francis when he asked the cardinal to lead a peace mission for Ukraine in 2023. The Italian prelate, a member of the Catholic humanitarian group Sant’Egidio, was part of a team which helped to mediate an end to the Mozambique civil war in 1992. The Roman-born cardinal is known for getting around Bologna on his bicycle and for his outreach to LGBTQ+ Catholics.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Leader of the Vatican office for evangelization)

The Filipino cardinal is a humble, yet charismatic leader often dubbed the “Asian Francis” due to his close association with the pastoral priorities of the Francis pontificate. For several years, he led the church’s global charitable arm. In 2019, he was asked by Francis to be prefect for the Vatican department for evangelization, which has seen him work closely with leaders of churches in the developing world. Although an engaging leader, some have questioned his management skills after a Vatican overhaul of the leadership of Caritas – the federation of Catholic charities – saw him step down as president. Tagle, known as “Chito,” would be the first Southeast Asian and Filipino pope and his candidacy reflects the growing influence of the church in Asia.

Cardinal Pablo Virgilio Siongco David (Bishop of Kalookan)

An outspoken voice for justice, he faced death threats and criminal charges in his homeland of the Philippines after preaching against drug war killings during the Rodrigo Duterte presidency. Known as Cardinal “Ambo” (which he likes to pair with “Apu,” meaning “grandfather”), he shares Francis’ vision of the church and says the next pope needs to focus on building a church which is “inclusive” and like a “field hospital” for the wounded. The cardinal is respected by his peers, serving as leader of the Philippine’s bishops’ conference, and in 2024 was elected to sit on a council to discuss major reforms in the Catholic Church. Like Tagle, he would be the first Southeast Asian and Filipino pope.

Cardinal Gérald Cyprien Lacroix (Archbishop of Quebec)

He is considered an accomplished leader and pastorally sensitive with experience guiding a local church in a country with high rates of secularization. Lacroix’s focus on a missionary church is likely to be seen favorably in a papal election and his leadership skills were recognized by Francis who chose him as a member of the Council of Cardinals, the body which advises the pope on crucial matters. Lacroix, however, has faced an allegation of sexual abuse in the 1980s by an unnamed female who was 17 at the time. The cardinal strongly denied the claims – contained in a civil class suit action against Quebec archdiocese – and a retired judge, commissioned by the Vatican to investigate the allegations, later found no evidence of sexual misconduct. The allegation could damage Lacroix’s candidacy, but the judge’s finding might also be viewed as Lacroix having already been vetted.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Archbishop of Kinshasa)

He is the leader of a massive local church of more than seven million Catholics and is a respected moral voice in his country. Cardinal Ambongo represents the growing church of Africa and could appeal to a cross-section of cardinals in a conclave. A member of the Capuchin Franciscan religious order – an order of friars which follows the teachings of St. Francis of Assisi and whose brown habits inspired the name for the frothy coffee “cappuccino” – he has been a strong defender of democracy and human rights, unafraid to stand up to warlords and corruption. But the Congolese cardinal also took a strong stance against blessings of same-sex couples.

Cardinal Joseph Tobin (Archbishop of Newark)

A big-hearted, down-to-earth figure, Cardinal Tobin has worked in Rome as a senior Vatican official and as leader of his Redemptorist order, a congregation of missionaries working in over 80 countries and with a focus on the poor. His international experience, work in the Vatican and leadership of Catholic communities in Indianapolis and Newark make him a leading US candidate in the forthcoming conclave. The cardinal – who also speaks Spanish, Portuguese, French and Italian – has been a prominent advocate for migrants, once defying former Gov. Mike Pence’s ban on resettling refugees from Syria in Indiana. He will be one to watch.

Cardinal Robert Prevost (Prefect of the Vatican Dicastery for Bishops)

Considered a highly capable and experienced leader, he serves in the vital role as leader of the powerful Vatican office for bishop appointments, assessing candidates and making recommendations to the pope. Born in Chicago, he is a member of the Augustinian religious order – of which he went on to lead as global superior – and spent many years working in Peru. He was later Bishop of Chicalayo, Peru, before being chosen by Francis to lead the Vatican’s bishop office. While it is often said cardinal electors would always shy away from choosing a pope from the US due to America’s global political influence, Prevost’s long experience in Peru may help mitigate that.

Cardinal Tarcisius Isao Kikuchi (Archbishop of Tokyo)

A Japanese missionary who was elected to lead the church’s charitable arm (Caritas) in 2023, Kikuchi knows the global church and would offer continuity with Francis’ pastoral priorities. Kikuchi spent many years working in Africa, including as a missionary in Ghana and helping refugees fleeing the Rwandan genocide in 1994. Meanwhile he’s taken a prominent role in the Japanese church and is known for his strong anti-nuclear weapons stance. His experience of ministering in different countries could be seen as an advantage among the increasingly globally diverse group of cardinals, while his leadership abilities have already been recognized through his election to lead the Japanese bishops’ conference, Caritas and as secretary-general of the Federation of Asian bishops’ conferences.

Cardinal Michael Czerny (Leader of the Vatican’s social justice office)

A child of migrants, Czerny was born in Czechoslovakia but grew up in Canada after his parents emigrated there in 1948. He joined the Jesuits in 1963, and his ministry has seen him lead a human rights institute in El Salvador and the African Jesuit Aids Network, which offers support and care for those with HIV/Aids across Africa. In the Vatican, he was Francis’ point man on migrants and was later appointed leader of the Vatican department for promoting human development. Some cardinals may not want another Jesuit pope, but Czerny has strong organizational skills and global experience.

Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero (Archbishop of Rabat, Morocco)

The Spanish cardinal leads a small yet vibrant church in Morocco which works closely with migrants. He is a member of the Salesian religious order, a group within the church devoted to educating young people, and spent a number of years in Latin America, including a long stint in Paraguay. His time in Morocco has given him expertise in dialogue with Islam and he has emphasized the importance of working with Muslims. López Romero has also been an advocate of the synod reform process begun by Francis. He insists the Catholic Church “is not a Western organization” and his work reflects the contemporary church’s priorities of dialogue and mission.

Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (Archbishop of Luxembourg)

He won plaudits for how he coordinated two vital recent summits in the Vatican on church reform (synods) and is a Jesuit, like Francis. Hollerich spent many years working in Japan and speaks several languages fluently, including Japanese, so could appeal to electors from a range of countries. He is an advocate for church reforms, has worked as one of Francis’ closest advisers and served a five-year term as the elected president of a grouping of bishops in European Union countries.

Cardinal Péter Erdő (Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest)

A respected church lawyer, the Hungarian cardinal has support from conservative cardinals who would like the next pope to take the church in a different direction than Francis. Erdő, perceived as an ally of anti-migrant President Viktor Orban, has suggested that welcoming refugees into Hungary would amount to human trafficking, while on questions of church reform he has struck a conservative tone. Erdő might be an attractive candidate to those seeking a pope who will set out the church’s rules with force and clarity, although he is not considered an engaging or charismatic communicator.

Along with the frontrunners, other candidates might also emerge.

Cardinal Mario Grech, 68, the Maltese leader of the church’s synod office, could appeal to some – as might Cardinal Stephen Chow, 65, the Bishop of Hong Kong, known for his diplomatic and pastoral skills.

The Italian cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, has also impressed with his leadership skills during the Israel-Hamas war as patriarch of Jerusalem.

Another one to watch is Brazilian cardinal Jaime Spengler, 64, who has also shown he possesses strong leadership skills, having been elected to head up both the Brazilian bishops’ conference as well as the Latin American Episcopal Conference.