Election Day: Key Races to Watch

Voters are heading to the polls Tuesday to weigh in on critical races electing governors, mayors and more as observers look for clues about the national mood heading into next year’s midterms.

New Jersey and Virginia are holding high-stakes elections for governor, among other top posts. In New York City, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani is running against former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) and Republican Curtis Sliwa to succeed outgoing Mayor Eric Adams (D).

California voters, meanwhile, will weigh in on a new set of congressional maps pushed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).

Here are the key races to watch in Tuesday’s critical 2025 elections:

New York City

Independents, moderate Democrats and even Republicans are racing to give Cuomo a boost over the front-runner Mamdani in the final stretch of the New York City mayoral election to succeed Adams.

Ever since Mamdani trounced the former New York governor in the Democratic mayoral primary, polling has shown steady momentum for the New York state Assembly member, who would become the city’s first millennial and first Muslim mayor if elected.

Mamdani has been buoyed by several different dynamics: a campaign focused on affordability that’s resonated with voters, offering a vision when much of the party has been stuck in largely anti-Trump messaging, the Republican Sliwa playing spoiler to Cuomo, and recent endorsements from longtime holdouts such as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

Politicians such as Adams, moderate Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi (N.Y.) and Trump have offered nods to Cuomo in the last few weeks, though it may not be enough to overcome his deficit against Mamdani. A Decision Desk HQ polling average has Mamdani leading double digits over Cuomo at 45 percent to 32 percent.

One other race to watch in the city is the Manhattan district attorney’s race. Incumbent Alvin Bragg (D), who secured a conviction against Trump over a 2016 hush money probe, is running against Republican Maud Moran.

Virginia

The Old Dominion is holding elections for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and the House of Delegates.

Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) is running against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) since Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is term-limited. Polling has shown Spanberger with a comfortable lead over Earle-Sears, with a Decision Desk HQ polling average of the race showing the Democrat ahead at 53 percent to Earle-Sears’s 43 percent.

But the GOP Virginia lieutenant governor and her party have sought to tie Spanberger to a scandal that has swirled around Jay Jones, the Democratic challenger to Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R), in the final stretch of the race.

Jones has faced blowback over resurfaced text messages from 2022 in which he talked about shooting former Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert (R) and suggested Gilbert and his wife were “breeding little fascists.”

Jones has since apologized for the text messages. He’s also looked to nationalize the race, tying Miyares to President Trump. A Decision HQ polling average of the race shows Miyares just ahead of Jones, 47 percent to 45 percent.

Controversy has also rocked Republicans in Virginia lieutenant governor’s race.

Republican John Reid refused to end his candidacy earlier this year when Republicans found a social media account that has been linked to Reid shared sexually explicit content of men. Reid, who is gay, has said the account isn’t his and that he’s being discriminated against due to his sexuality. Reid is running against Democrat Ghazala Hashmi in a race polls also suggest is close

Control of the House of Delegates is also at play Tuesday, as Republicans look to flip Democrats’ 51-48 majority.

New Jersey

Republican Jack Ciattarelli is hoping to change his party’s fortunes in the Garden State and defeat Democrat Mikie Sherrill to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D).

Recent elections have shown Democrats can’t take the state for granted: Murphy beat Ciattarelli for reelection by just 3 points in 2021, and former Vice President Kamala Harris’s winning margin in November was only about 6 points.

Republicans are hoping to make the governor’s race a referendum on continued Democratic governance, as voters there grapple with rising utilities costs and affordability concerns.

Meanwhile, Democrats have sought to nationalize the race and tie Ciattarelli to Trump. Democrats have slammed the Trump administration for freezing funds for the Hudson River Tunnel Project, known as the Gateway tunnel, and suggested the Republican former Assembly member wouldn’t be able to stand up to the president when needed.

Democrats are feeling cautiously optimistic about their chances Tuesday, though concerns over Black and Latino/Hispanic voter turnout have rocked the Sherrill campaign. A Decision Desk HQ polling average shows Sherrill at 50 percent and Ciattarelli at nearly 46 percent.

California

California voters are weighing in on a key ballot measure that could give Democrats four or five pickup opportunities in the House next year, as both parties race to redraw maps in states they control ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Californians will vote on Proposition 50, which would allow lawmakers to temporarily bypass the state’s independent redistricting commission and pass a new Democratic-friendly congressional map before 2026. The measure stipulates that the commission would reassume its role overseeing the drawing of California’s House map after the 2030 U.S. Census.

Proposition 50 was borne out of a broader redistricting battle that began in Texas and has stretched across the country. The White House and national Republicans have pushed Texas, Missouri, Indiana and more to redraw their congressional maps before next year’s elections as the GOP braces for a challenging midterm environment.

The Republican redistricting push turned into a national tit for tat as Democrats have looked to California and elsewhere to try to neutralize the gains Republicans are expected to make.

What was initially seen as a big gamble for California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has turned into what is lining up to be a clear win, as polling has shown the ballot initiative projected to pass Tuesday — particularly in the absence of a competitive opposition campaign against the ballot measure.

A Tuesday win would bode well for Newsom, who’s long been viewed as a key 2028 contender and who has recently left the door open to a White House run.

Pennsylvania

Voters will be weighing in on retention races on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, with Justices David Wecht, Christine Donohue and Kevin Dougherty, all Democrats, running for 10-year terms.

The state Supreme Court has a 5-2 Democratic edge, meaning the balance of power is on the line Tuesday. The retention races have attracted millions of dollars, though it’s usually difficult to oust incumbents during retention elections.

Only one incumbent, a Democratic appellate judge, has lost a retention race since their introduction in 1968, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

State Supreme Courts have only grown in importance, particularly in swing states, where they’ve been the key decider on issues such as election disputes, redistricting and abortion access.

Texas

More than a dozen candidates are vying to succeed former Rep. Sylvester Turner (D), who represented Texas’s 18th Congressional District in Houston and died in March.

Among those running to fill the remainder of Turner’s term include former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards (D), Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D).

A candidate needs to receive at least half of the vote in order to avoid a runoff; if no candidate outright wins the race, the two top vote-getters head into a runoff for the seat. Regardless of whether there’s a runoff, Democrats are expected to retain Turner’s seat, and refilling it will mean Republicans can’t afford any defections on passing legislation.

Mississippi

A redistricting battle has offered Democrats a chance to break Republicans’ supermajority in the state Senate as the party looks to make inroads in the South. Mississippi was required to implement new maps after a three-judge panel ruled the previous state legislative map violated the Voting Rights Act.

The new map has given Democrats the opportunity to compete in a handful of districts, though the state Legislature is still firmly Republican-dominated.

The U.S. Supreme Court last month reheard a case over Louisiana’s congressional map and the extent to which race should be considered when drawing election maps, with the conservative majority seeming inclined to restrict its usage. That opinion, which is expected to be released next year, could have implications on Mississippi’s state maps and other ongoing redistricting litigation.