Senate Expected to Change Trump's Tax Bill

Speaker Mike Johnson struck a series of delicate deals to get Republicans’ “big, beautiful bill” through the House. Now, Senate Republicans are threatening to tear them apart.

Despite behind-the-scenes efforts to smooth versions of the bill between chambers and pleas from Johnson to avoid significant changes, the megabill could be in for a major rewrite across the Capitol.

“The Senate will have its imprint on it,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune declared. “They’ve got to do what they can get 218 for, and we’ve got to do what we can get 51 for.”

Here are some of the early fault lines:

MEDICAID FINANCING — There’s a battle brewing between Senate Republicans over the House’s push to freeze the provider tax, which Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.) warned “is a real risk to rural hospitals.”

Who to watch: Sens. Hawley, Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), who have all drawn red lines on Medicaid benefit cuts.

CLEAN-ENERGY CREDITS — House Republicans’ move to speed up sunset dates for several clean-energy tax credits in Democrats’ 2022 climate law is stoking Senate GOP fears that it could have a “chilling effect” on future investments, Sen. Thom Tillis (N.C.) told POLITICO on Thursday.

Who to watch: Sens. Tillis, Murkowski, John Curtis (Utah) and Jerry Moran (Kan.), who recently sent a letter to GOP leadership warning against gutting the credits.

SPENDING CUTS — Some GOP senators openly derided House hard-liners for not securing steeper spending cuts in their version of the megabill (House fiscal hawks mocked them back for thinking they could get more). Thune said he’s aiming for closer to $2 trillion in reductions, above the $1.5 trillion the House passed.

Who to watch: Sen. Ron Johnson (Wis.), who’s pushing for a return to pre-pandemic spending levels (a roughly $6 trillion cut). He believes he has the votes to tank the bill if it doesn’t go far enough, pointing to Sens. Mike Lee (Utah), Rick Scott (Fla.) and Rand Paul (Ky.) as allies.

SNAP COST-SHARING — One of the most controversial House provisions is causing plenty of heartburn in the Senate: requiring states to cover a portion of federal food assistance costs for the first time.

Who to watch: Murkowski and fellow Alaskan Dan Sullivan, plus Sens. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and Tim Scott (S.C.). Agriculture Chair John Boozman (Ark.) hinted Republicans could face backlash from governors over “how much of an unfunded mandate” the change could create. This comes as a new Congressional Budget Office analysis says increased Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program work requirements could kick 3.2 million people out of the program.

What else we’re watching:

— Senate Dems prepare megabill attacks: Top Senate Democrats will be looking to exploit GOP concerns with Republicans’ megabill, even as they acknowledge they’re all but powerless to stop the party-line push that needs only a simple majority to clear the chamber. “We know that a lot of Republicans on the Senate side are squirmy,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said on a Thursday call organized by nonprofit Families Over Billionaires. “We’re going to fight this tooth and nail.”

— The Senate’s megabill process: Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (Miss.) on Thursday cast doubt on the likelihood his committee would meet to vote on the defense spending portion of the Republican megabill. The potential move to bypass an Armed Services vote signals that the Senate may pursue a more informal committee process for the bill than the House, as Republican leaders attempt to get the bill to President Donald Trump’s desk by July 4.

— Biden Oversight hearing: House Oversight Chair James Comer (Ky.) is demanding interviews with Joe Biden’s physician and former White House officials as part of his investigation into the former president’s mental decline. The requests, dated Thursday, were sent to Biden’s physician, Kevin O’Connor; former Domestic Policy Council Director Neera Tanden; former senior adviser to the first lady Anthony Bernal; former deputy chief of staff Annie Tomasini; and former deputy director of Oval Office operations Ashley Williams.